Barcelona: System AnalysisBy: Ramzi Tanani
"Throughout the history of FC Barcelona, one part of Barcelona has trailed behind in terms of effectiveness and reliability, and that is defense. The 2008/2009 season has been no different, with the soft underbelly of arguably the best attacking club in the world once again exposed."
A look at Barcelona's defense
By: Nzuu Ranwaha
arcelona is in a big trouble! Not only Nzuu in his article hits on the reliability of Barcelona defense this season, but also dooms Barcelona to be defensively exposed for ever! There is nothing worse to throw on a team than saying: You are bad, that’s how you were, and that’s how you will always be! He started with the previous intro, and ending by the following conclusion:Conclusion:
"Barcelona's defensive problems cannot be resolved right now,
maybe not in the next two seasons, maybe not ever."
The doctor said it! You have a Xevolontonia, there is no treatment for that. But look to the bright side: you will badly suffer, but will live for ever! "Barcelona's defensive problems cannot be resolved right now,
maybe not in the next two seasons, maybe not ever."
Check no dictionary, I just made up that Xevolontonia word. Sweat while spelling, then Sue me!
Nzuu article was published on March 13, 2009, following a draw against Betis, a defeat against Espanyol, and another against Atletico. They say that timing is the most important factor for the success of an article. And there is no better timing than that to hit on Barcelona defense.
But who blame him? When the team concedes as many goals, no one can argue that the defense is having naps and gaps. Questioning the defenders' quality and Slamming their performance become inevitable. True, unless…
The way Barcelona Defend
In order to make a good diagnosis about how Barcelona can improve their defense, we need to understand the way Barcelona defends. Not only our offense structure is one of its kind, but also the way we defend is unique.
The most common way of defense, is to demand a direct transition and positioning from the defenders and midfielders the moment the team loses the ball, creating a Zonal shield in your team's own half. The details about players positioning and roles vary with teams.
Liverpool for example, employs Xabi Alonso to assist Mascherano in front of the four defenders guarding the box. Babble and Kuyt close the way on the flanks in front of the fullbacks but at the same time help Gerrard creating pressure on the opponents ball holders, while Torres do his runs to avoid letting the opponent defense comfortable enough to build up the game from deep.
Arsenal Use one Defensive midfielder, when available. Napoli, till lately, was possibly the only team in Europe Applying the 3-5-2, with almost everyone bouncing back to their own half. And so on.
I can claim that most teams in the world, if not all of them, lean on their defenders to do the biggest slice of defensive jobs. The rest of the team offer help, cover and support.
So we just figured out that: Defenders defend? How smart this conclusion sounds! Not in Barcelona.
At Barcelona the defense is mainly the job of the players who attack the opponent territory. This season, it’s the work of three forwards, two midfielders and an Alves (you can make up a position name for him. May be: the wing back forward?). The role of the defensive midfielder (Call him Yaya) is to create cover, and the role of the three defenders left behind is to create depth.
It’s a kind of win-win deal between defense and offense. Defenders agree to take the risk of guarding a wide sector of the field without sufficient number of players, which save more players for the offense section of the pitch (we are barcelonists and we like it!). Offense in return pay for that by applying high pressure in the opponent's half, winning the ball as fast as possible, increasing possession time, and creating a Y2K problem on the scoring sheet that lacks a third digit to count the goals scored by the Catalan slaughters. All that contributes to keep the defense enjoying a sun bath, and keep Valdes in an Auto extended vacation.
The Dangerous Compromise Between Defense and Offense
When the Pressure on the ball drops by 15 %, it doesn’t demand 15% more effort from the defenders to cover that declination. It actually leads the whole system to collapse. Because the defenders role then switch from creating depth and Freezing the opponent’s last man standing upfront, to become a mission impossible of standing and facing a counter attacking tsunami, to mark, tackle, cover, with continuous re-positioning and pressure. And still falling under the obligation of building up the game from behind with accurate passes, Nonsense clearance is a crime in Barcelona. That’s too much for a defensive trio, right? This is not something we train our defenders to do. This is not something we like. And it's not something Defenders of any team can handle.
If we agree on that, then we know that the periods when the team face a drop in form, we need to evaluate the whole team defensive contribution (and specially those who are upfront), before looking for the scapegoat who made the last mistake before the goal. More pressure upfront means fewer counters, leading to less catastrophic mistakes. That’s the magic of probabilities.
Our offense and defense performance is interrelated. The systems we play say it, and the records approve.
In the Charts attachment I represented the Variation of Barcelona goals scored/Conceded this season, Not only by numbers but also by Value, as explained in more details in the attachment.
Extensive details about the charts in the attachment below.
Based on all that, the drop in form we witnessed after winter break was basically a result of slight drop in form when the team momentum got distracted by the Winter Vacation. Beside, there was a decline in the pressure intensity made by our players on the opponents.Where do Barcelona struggle sometimes defensively?
We made lot of guesses, and it was different by game. But if we cruise through all the games played already, we will notice that goals conceded variation is independent of who plays, and where. Definitely we have better defense selections than others. My best so far is: Alves-Puyol-Pique-Abidal. But knowing the system dynamics and the Defenders share in defense, I think the names are a secondary factor compared to what's more crucial, the output of the collaborative defense.
Beside, the Chart support the football common sense that abandons the Myth that says:
"it's ok if defensively Barcelona suffers, as long as it can manage to always score more than we concede".
It clearly shows that Offense and defense improve together or collapse together. Every time our offense and midfield face a drop in form, it doesn’t only decrease the offense efficiency, but also increase the defense fragility as well. I am not saying Defense does no mistakes. Yet, not only the last mistake, is the one we count. The last mistake is the one we count last.
Two factors contribute more than anything to weaken our defensive solidity:
1) Counter attacks threat: With the "Vacuum tunnel" I mentioned in Roads leading to Rome.
2) Fitness level: It is vital for the quality of pressure our offense put on the opponent, and it's also vital for the quality of defensive transition when the initial pressure fails to win back the ball.
The counter attacks threat is something we discussed previously, and will do an upgrade on that discussion in the following article.
Fatigue is a common concern for Barcelona fans. The games pressure was the main factor for the performance decline after the winter period. The reasons and solutions for the Fatigue curse is something to discuss. What's important first is to make sure we do the right diagnosis. So we know the fact and fake in the previous Nzuu Conclusion:
"Barcelona's defensive problems cannot be resolved right now, maybe not in the next two seasons, maybe not ever."
/ Slash/ Off record whisper, open Brackets [I couldn’t understand how did he come up with the "Not in the next two seasons…" timeline. Why not three seasons and two months for example? Is it a kind of "You are doomed for two years!" spell? A Nostradamus call from the dead? Or he expects Puyol to win the lottery and retire? Valdes will get a good price for his gloves so he switches to play as a forward sending Messi to bench? Or we will hire The Ghost of Helenio Herrera as a new coach to fix our defensive misery? I'm Just Curious to know, for real.
That’s how that conclusion sounds, out of any context. The only bright side about it is that the diagnosis was not accurate.] Close brackets, and stop yawing!
This was a needed intro for the article suggesting a system upgrade. We need it to create an extra shield for our attractive system and stunning performance and to guarantee continuity, and more efficiency. Things went better recently after the team left the "fatigue tunnel". But it's not a history that will never be repeated. We entered the intensive period of February/March with a reasonable fitness level, but still faced a nightmare that deducted our twelve points lead in the liga to four points, before earning back additional two. Now we will never be as fresh as we were in January, and what will be scarier than another intensive February-like period?
I remember raising my concerns while Barcelona was acting as a teams' smasher till January. It was obviously coming, and it did. We witnessed in February how much calories we burned since the beginning of the season. Something we were able to avoid without compromising the results. Now we bounced back fitness wise, to some extend. What will come is the tough part of the season, the vital games in the Liga and the champions' league. And we need to be as fresh as possible when we approach the Live-or-die games. It only happens by saving energy in the games where we can. If you think "Nah…the most difficult part is over" then:
Enter your room, close all your doors and windows, and stare in the following schedule:
18 April: Getafe vs Barca
22 April: Barca vs Sevilla
26 April: Valencia vs Barca
29 Apr Champions League Semi-finals
03 May Real Madrid - FC Barcelona
5 May Champions League Semi-finals
10 May FC Barcelona - Villarreal CF
13 May Copa Del Rey Final
17 May RCD Mallorca - FC Barcelona
24 May FC Barcelona - Osasuna
27 May Champions League finals
31 May Deportivo - FC Barcelona
Just don’t scream and wake the neighbors.
Barcelona fans always show more relief every week after a win in the liga. It’s a "one game less". But I think it doesn’t have a bad psychological impact on Real Madrid that we are keeping the margin of six points. They have a clear objective: "they MUST keep it 6 points till May", that’s when two important things will happen:
1)We will play against them in Madrid.
2)We will enter the intensive period the same time while we play the best teams in the Liga. And the most exhausting battles in the Champions' league.
Let's not argue if they will win in Madrid, if they will win all their games in May, or if they can keep it six points margin till then. That’s their only hope. How to avoid falling in that trap? And how to be the most attractive team, and yet the most fresh and fit in the last phase of the season?
Soon you will find a new post on the blog with a weird title, something like "Barcetalia", and we will continue this ramble there.
But till then, the stage is yours'.
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Attachment
Detailed Analysis about the relation between offense and defense
Use the scrolls to browse, or click the chart to open it full page.
Generating the Data:
1) Liga scoring/conceding rate per game per team:
I took the league table, the number of goals scored by all teams in 28 weeks is: 824 goal in 280 games. Deducting Barcelona Games, Goals scored, and Goals conceded, Means that in 252 Games the other Liga teams scored 716 goals against each other, Making the average goals scored/conceded by a team per game is:
Liga Average Rate (LAR) = 716 / (2x252) = 1.421 Goals/team/game.
2) Calculating Each Team conceding/scoring Average per game:
In the initialized table (without Barcelona goals) Dividing number of goals every team scored by the number of games played. For example:
Villarreal: Scored 44 goals in 27 games (deducting the goal scored against Barcelona in their 28th game). So their Goal scoring Average (GSA) = 44 / 27 = 1.63 Goals per game.
Villarreal Conceded 35 goals in 27 games (deducting the 2 goals conceded by Barcelona in their 28th game). So their Goal Conceded Average (GCA) = 35 / 27 = 1.296 Goals per game.
And the same goes for all the Liga teams to measure there average performance in order to benchmark it with their performance against Barcelona, and Barcelona performance against them.
3) Goals Value:
A goal Scored against Sevilla (GCA = 0.852) for example, must have a higher value than a goal scored against Almeria (GCA = 1.5) or any other team with weaker defense than Sevilla. The same for goals conceded. Its important to take in consideration the opponent Defense/offense strength before comparing Barcelona performance against two different opponents.
To demonstrate that, I will take two games as an example:
21 Feb 09 FC Barcelona 1 - 2 Espanyol
1 Mar 09 Atlético Madrid 4 - 3 FC Barcelona
Espanyol Scored two goals against Barcelona. Atletico scored four. But that doesn’t mean Barcelona Defense against Espanyol was better. Espanyol Scores 0.846 goals per game in the Liga. Atletico scores 1.889 goals per game. So to evaluate the Values of numbers of goals conceded in the two games, we need to evaluate the value of the two results if the two teams had the same offense strength. The only way I found to do so, is to calculate the goals value based on a fixed common factor, and that is the LIGA Average Rate (LAR).
The logic here is: If Espanyol (0.846 goals/game) Scored two goals against Barcelona defense in that game, Relatively, how many goals a team of 1.421 Goals/game (LAR) would have scored back then?
0.846 -------- > 2 goals scored
1.421-------- > Goals Relative value = (1.421 X 2) / 0.846 = 3.359 Goals.
While Atletico ( 1.889) scored four goals, so the Relative goals Value Based on (LAR) is
1.889 -------- > 4 goals scored
1.421-------- > Goals Relative value = (1.421 X 4) / 1.889 = 3.01 Goals.
And it shows that Even though Atletico scored two times more goals against Barcelona than Espanyol did, yet Barcelona Defense was more fragile against Espanyol.
So the general criteria to evaluate goals scored by any team against Barcelona, takes the number of Goals netted and the opponent Goal scoring average (GSA) is:
Opponent GSA ------ > Number of Goals Scored
LAR------ > Goals relative value (Calculated).
The same goes for goals scored by Barcelona taking in consideration the opponent conceding average per game (GCA). Espanyol (GCA = 1.607) , Atletico (GCA = 1.308).
Opponent GCA ------ > Number of Goals scored by barcelona
LAR ------ > Goals relative value (Calculated).
Based on that, the goal scored by Barcelona against espanyol has the value of ( 0.884 ) while their three goals against Atletico has the Value of ( 3.259 ).
4) Offense efficiency by game: is an indicator that compares Barcelona offense efficiency against a certain team to the efficiency of the other teams against that team.
Taking Valencia as an example, their GCA is 1.334 Goals per game. This means that the other teams in the liga had the offense efficiency to score an average of 1.334 Goals per game against Valencia. Barcelona scored 4 goals against Valencia with a scoring value of 4.261. That makes Barcelona offense efficiency in this game exceeds the average Liga efficiency against Valencia by: 4.261 – 1.334 = 2.927
While against Getafe (GCA=1.519), Barcelona scored one goal with a relative value of 0.935. That makes Barcelona offense efficiency in this game inclined under the Liga offense efficiency against Getafe: 0.935 – 1.519 = - 0.584
5) Defense Fragility by game:
Governed by the same logic used to calculate Offense efficiency, the defense Fragility is an indicator that compares Barcelona defense performance to the over all defense performance of liga teams while playing against a specific team.
Taking Osasuna as an example, their Scoring average against La liga teams is (GSA = 0.963 goals per game), that’s the average number of goals Osasuna scores against La Liga teams. They scored two Goals against Barcelona with a relative value of 2.951.
That makes Barcelona defense fragility compared to la liga teams defense fragility average against Osasuna = 2.951 – 0.961 = 1.99.
Keeping in mind that, the Offense efficiency rate show the minimum efficiency value, taking in consideration the scoring opportunities missed and the fact that when Barcelona score a certain number of goals they automatically decrease their over all performance offensively.
In the other hand, the fragility rate indicates the minimum fragility level, taking in consideration the opponent offense failure to score clear opportunities, leading to less conceded goals for Barcelona, because of the Opponent mistakes, and not Barcelona Defense quality. (And again, when we say defense we are talking about the defense system, not the defenders). The only exceptions are the games where Barcelona ended with a clean sheet, that’s when the opposite is true. The defense was much better than needed to overcome opponent offense quality, so ended with clean sheet. It means that defensively we were better than the needs of the GSA of the opponent, but it's impossibly to know to what extend we were better.
Finally, to make a more accurate indicator, we need to measure the GCA, GSA, and LAR during the period of the evaluated game (a segment of 5 games before and 5 games later) rather than the overall rate of 28 games. This way you take the periodic form in consideration, rather than the gross form. And there is also a need to take the away/home impact in consideration. I am not sure how far all that will change the results, but knowing that it will need a huge work to achieve that level, I had to accept the level I based my analysis on, as a more accurate method than taking the rough goals numbers and base the analysis upon.
And it was encouraging because the charts and numbers met the observation methodology to evaluate the team performance.
Yet, any other criteria will be more than welcomed to be discussed on the table.
I took the league table, the number of goals scored by all teams in 28 weeks is: 824 goal in 280 games. Deducting Barcelona Games, Goals scored, and Goals conceded, Means that in 252 Games the other Liga teams scored 716 goals against each other, Making the average goals scored/conceded by a team per game is:
Liga Average Rate (LAR) = 716 / (2x252) = 1.421 Goals/team/game.
2) Calculating Each Team conceding/scoring Average per game:
In the initialized table (without Barcelona goals) Dividing number of goals every team scored by the number of games played. For example:
Villarreal: Scored 44 goals in 27 games (deducting the goal scored against Barcelona in their 28th game). So their Goal scoring Average (GSA) = 44 / 27 = 1.63 Goals per game.
Villarreal Conceded 35 goals in 27 games (deducting the 2 goals conceded by Barcelona in their 28th game). So their Goal Conceded Average (GCA) = 35 / 27 = 1.296 Goals per game.
And the same goes for all the Liga teams to measure there average performance in order to benchmark it with their performance against Barcelona, and Barcelona performance against them.
3) Goals Value:
A goal Scored against Sevilla (GCA = 0.852) for example, must have a higher value than a goal scored against Almeria (GCA = 1.5) or any other team with weaker defense than Sevilla. The same for goals conceded. Its important to take in consideration the opponent Defense/offense strength before comparing Barcelona performance against two different opponents.
To demonstrate that, I will take two games as an example:
21 Feb 09 FC Barcelona 1 - 2 Espanyol
1 Mar 09 Atlético Madrid 4 - 3 FC Barcelona
Espanyol Scored two goals against Barcelona. Atletico scored four. But that doesn’t mean Barcelona Defense against Espanyol was better. Espanyol Scores 0.846 goals per game in the Liga. Atletico scores 1.889 goals per game. So to evaluate the Values of numbers of goals conceded in the two games, we need to evaluate the value of the two results if the two teams had the same offense strength. The only way I found to do so, is to calculate the goals value based on a fixed common factor, and that is the LIGA Average Rate (LAR).
The logic here is: If Espanyol (0.846 goals/game) Scored two goals against Barcelona defense in that game, Relatively, how many goals a team of 1.421 Goals/game (LAR) would have scored back then?
0.846 -------- > 2 goals scored
1.421-------- > Goals Relative value = (1.421 X 2) / 0.846 = 3.359 Goals.
While Atletico ( 1.889) scored four goals, so the Relative goals Value Based on (LAR) is
1.889 -------- > 4 goals scored
1.421-------- > Goals Relative value = (1.421 X 4) / 1.889 = 3.01 Goals.
And it shows that Even though Atletico scored two times more goals against Barcelona than Espanyol did, yet Barcelona Defense was more fragile against Espanyol.
So the general criteria to evaluate goals scored by any team against Barcelona, takes the number of Goals netted and the opponent Goal scoring average (GSA) is:
Opponent GSA ------ > Number of Goals Scored
LAR------ > Goals relative value (Calculated).
The same goes for goals scored by Barcelona taking in consideration the opponent conceding average per game (GCA). Espanyol (GCA = 1.607) , Atletico (GCA = 1.308).
Opponent GCA ------ > Number of Goals scored by barcelona
LAR ------ > Goals relative value (Calculated).
Based on that, the goal scored by Barcelona against espanyol has the value of ( 0.884 ) while their three goals against Atletico has the Value of ( 3.259 ).
4) Offense efficiency by game: is an indicator that compares Barcelona offense efficiency against a certain team to the efficiency of the other teams against that team.
Taking Valencia as an example, their GCA is 1.334 Goals per game. This means that the other teams in the liga had the offense efficiency to score an average of 1.334 Goals per game against Valencia. Barcelona scored 4 goals against Valencia with a scoring value of 4.261. That makes Barcelona offense efficiency in this game exceeds the average Liga efficiency against Valencia by: 4.261 – 1.334 = 2.927
While against Getafe (GCA=1.519), Barcelona scored one goal with a relative value of 0.935. That makes Barcelona offense efficiency in this game inclined under the Liga offense efficiency against Getafe: 0.935 – 1.519 = - 0.584
5) Defense Fragility by game:
Governed by the same logic used to calculate Offense efficiency, the defense Fragility is an indicator that compares Barcelona defense performance to the over all defense performance of liga teams while playing against a specific team.
Taking Osasuna as an example, their Scoring average against La liga teams is (GSA = 0.963 goals per game), that’s the average number of goals Osasuna scores against La Liga teams. They scored two Goals against Barcelona with a relative value of 2.951.
That makes Barcelona defense fragility compared to la liga teams defense fragility average against Osasuna = 2.951 – 0.961 = 1.99.
Keeping in mind that, the Offense efficiency rate show the minimum efficiency value, taking in consideration the scoring opportunities missed and the fact that when Barcelona score a certain number of goals they automatically decrease their over all performance offensively.
In the other hand, the fragility rate indicates the minimum fragility level, taking in consideration the opponent offense failure to score clear opportunities, leading to less conceded goals for Barcelona, because of the Opponent mistakes, and not Barcelona Defense quality. (And again, when we say defense we are talking about the defense system, not the defenders). The only exceptions are the games where Barcelona ended with a clean sheet, that’s when the opposite is true. The defense was much better than needed to overcome opponent offense quality, so ended with clean sheet. It means that defensively we were better than the needs of the GSA of the opponent, but it's impossibly to know to what extend we were better.
Finally, to make a more accurate indicator, we need to measure the GCA, GSA, and LAR during the period of the evaluated game (a segment of 5 games before and 5 games later) rather than the overall rate of 28 games. This way you take the periodic form in consideration, rather than the gross form. And there is also a need to take the away/home impact in consideration. I am not sure how far all that will change the results, but knowing that it will need a huge work to achieve that level, I had to accept the level I based my analysis on, as a more accurate method than taking the rough goals numbers and base the analysis upon.
And it was encouraging because the charts and numbers met the observation methodology to evaluate the team performance.
Yet, any other criteria will be more than welcomed to be discussed on the table.
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* Note: We appreciate the effort done by any writer who spend time analyzing Barcelona performance. And so we extremely respect Nzuu Ranwaha For his article and appreciate his opinion. Nothing in this article was mentioned to underestimate his point of view.
Ramzi Tanani
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