Venue : Allianz Arena, MunichBayern are still smarting from open wounds and will be looking to wreak vengeance at home. A club with a much chequered history and the pride that is incrementally built up by this, they will be thirsting for revenge in the 2nd leg of the CL encounter with Barca. Initially, Bayern may go into the game looking only to play for pride but deep down they will surely entertain hopes that a few early goals will provide the impetuous to achieve an unlikely conquest.
That is what Bayern will hope. To put those hopes in perspective, after the 4-0 thrashing at the Camp Nou, a single goal by Barca in the Alliance Arena will mean Bayern require to find the net 6 times in order to progress. Perhaps as unlikely but just as wistfully will Barca and Victor Valdes hope, to extend the run of clean sheets they have managed over the last 5 games Valdes has played. Valdes had a great match over the weekend where he looked commanding and bailed out a limping defence only to pay tribute to the same after the game.
The influential English media have started to sit up and take note of Barca’s sublime performances. Yet they have quite distastefully refused to acknowledge anything in Barca’s overwhelming results beyond the individual brilliance of Messi, Etoó and co. Pep Guardiola’s remarkable success in playing a fluid passing game, inextricably linking defence and offense with persistent retaining of possession, is worthy of invoking a paradigm shift in footballing consciousness towards a game based on more skilful approach play. With typical obtuseness the media and coaches refuse to acknowledge anything that might challenge their long cherished Long-ball style or any tenet beyond sheer physical strength and velocity as skill.
It is highly probable that Messi may be rested for this game and the impact of this for Barca is likely to be more pronounced in defence than in attack. More on that later but first a word on Andres Iniesta: This is the man who has to fill in the shoes of both Messi and Xavi when either is absent and yet when both are present, complements their presence by adding a different dimension to the attack. Iniesta was pulled out in the 75th minute against Recreativo and replaced by Alexander Hleb for whom the management surely envisaged a similar role when they signed him at the start of the season.
A look at the weekend games for the 2 sides before we go any further.
Over the Weekend
Bayern : By all accounts (or at least this one), Bayern produced a comeback performance worthy of their reputation in a 4 – 0 thrashing of Eintracht Frankfurt. The stinging criticism they faced after the mauling by Barca seems to have struck home and Bayern produced a highly motivated performance.
Lahm failed to make the team as did Van Buyten. Lucio made his return however and scored a goal. Ribery, Toni and Schweinsteiger were the other scorers. Ze Roberto filled in at Left Back, Lell started as Right Back and Ottl took Ze Roberto’s place in midfield. In a show of continued disenchantment with Rensing, the 34-yr old Butt lined up between the posts. Jose Sosa played behind Luca Toni, Altintop being relegated to the bench.
Barca : A workmanlike performance was on display at the Nou Camp as they saw off relegation threatened Recré. Iniesta produced another sterling performance scoring the first goal and taking the shot that resulted in the 2nd. Messi missed a penalty. Xavi and Etoó started on the bench while Krkic failed to make the most of the starting place he got. Also rested was Carles Puyol while Abidal returned to the team, although, he didn’t get any minutes on the pitch. Henry and Messi played the whole game as did 35 year old Sylvinho .
For those who missed the first leg, here is an account from the Guardian website.
Tactics and Formation
Messi’s ability to dribble past defenders, twisting and turning, frequently changing direction causes defences to counter him simply by creating obstacles in his path. Thus they put more defenders in place so that he has more players to beat and hence his path to goal is lengthened. If Bojan for instance was used instead of Messi, even without the presence of the left-back, the centre-back can handle him by closing down the angle to goal and pushing him out wide from where his options are limited.
That in the absence of Lahm, Klinsmann opted to use Ze Roberto in his position bodes trouble for Barca. What this essentially implies is that Ribery is going to get some support while going forward on that flank. Countering this is going to be a hard task for Barca. When Keita came on in the first leg he spent a notable amount of time on that flank in an effort to nullify the Ribery threat. Although it is difficult to envisage this happening for an entire match it may be the most effective way to deal with the combined threat of Ribery and Ze Roberto/Lahm.
To maintain stability this will involve a reconfiguration of the formation. So Keita starts from RM, Xavi LM and Iniesta plays the Messi role from the left flank. The return of Abidal will allow the defence, i.e the centre backs to spread further to the right. Puyol at RCB may be another small change introduced as his greater mobility will help Barca push Ribery into a corner from where, any crosses can be better handled with Pique’s excellent positioning.
If Bayern play with 2 strikers or an extra forward looking to play off Luca Toni, it could complicate matters for Barca because then the centre-backs will have to stay closer to the centre in order to handle any headed lay-offs. But with the presence of Yaya Toure and Abidal, Guardiola will believe that there is sufficient cover to handle this. And Alves would do well to be more discreet while embarking on his kamikaze bombing runs.
Of course Guardiola may decide that the threat of Ribery does not warrant such rotation of the formation or might use a less marked deviation from the current system. After all, he has, to fall back on, the invisible pillars of Barca’s defensive success : its possession based attacking play and relentless harrying of the opposition which induces anxiety when they finally do gain control of the ball. So in the presumed absence of Messi and Henry, it will be upto the ever-reliable Iniesta and Etoó ( who was absolutely awesome in the first leg ), besides Xavi, to keep Bayern preoccupied with defending their goal.
Predicted Lineups :
Bayern 4-4-2 : Butt, Lell/Oddo, Lucio, Demichelis, Ze Roberto/Lahm, Schweinsteiger, Van Bommel, Ottl, Ribery, Toni, Podolski
Barca 4-3-3 : Valdes, Alves, Puyol, Pique, Abidal, Keita, Toure, Xavi, Bojan, Etoó, Iniesta
In Conclusion
Its Bayern’s home pitch so besides their 12th man home support they are also free to plant as many sausages as they wish under the Allianz Arena. Bayern will probably come charging out of the blocks in the first half until an unexpected Barca goal deflates them. Or perhaps it will just take a spell of Barca possession and before Bayern know it 10 minutes have passed and that familiar sensation of chasing phantoms, who just will not give up the ball, starts to creep in. Barca will play to win, as they always do, after all, the team owes El Capitan Puyol a win to commemorate his birthday. But surely after all of Klinsmann's defeated acceptance, Rummenigge's anger or disappointment confusion, Udo Lattek's tears and Beckenbauer's unmitigated condemnation, Bayern will have their backs up and manage to scrape through a victory?
Prediction : Bayern Munich 2 – 1 Barcelona
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